Weather Network unveils winter forecast

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The Weather Network believes the harsh winter conditions this November in New Brunswick are just a preview of the upcoming season.

Temperatures will likely be below normal this season but periods of mild weather can still be expected.

An active storm track along the Atlantic coast will mean many systems delivering above average precipitation including snow, rain and freezing rain.

A developing El Nino should bring a warmer, drier winter for Western Canada and a colder, wetter winter from the Great Lakes to Atlantic Canada.

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September 2018 – Warm and wet

Black-eyed Susans growing in Upper Hammonds Plains, NS, 21 Sept 2018 (Dearing)

Warm, summer weather picked up in September where it left off in August in Southeast New Brunswick.

But the passage of a cold front marked a drastic temperature drop on the 18th and suddenly it felt like fall in Greater Moncton.

The thermometer continued to plunge and sank to -1.9°C on the 25th with light, scattered frost although most vegetation was spared severe damage.

Precipitation was actually above normal although heavy amounts fell in a handful of rainfalls.

SEPTEMBER 2018 ALMANAC (at Greater Moncton Int’l Airport, 1981-2010)

Average HIGH 20.9°C

Average LOW 7.9°C

AVERAGE 14.4°C (about 0.8 degrees ABOVE normal)

Extreme HIGH 28.9°C (06 Sept)

Extreme LOW -1.9°C (25 Sept)

RAINFALL 100.5 mm (about 10 percent ABOVE normal)

(Data courtesy Environment Canada)

Summer arrives!

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The summer solstice officially arrived in New Brunswick at 7:07am ADT today.

This is the longest day of the year with 15 hours and 46 minutes of daylight in Moncton.

The sun is directly over the Tropic of Cancer and it will now begin moving south toward the equator which means days will be getting shorter again – by three seconds starting tomorrow.

As for summer weather predictions for the region, the Weather Network is suggesting July and August will have slightly above normal temperatures with high humidity.

Environment Canada believes there is an 80 percent chance of higher than average temperatures and a 40 percent chance of below normal precipitation.

April 2018 – Spring sputters

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Tree is budding at Fairview Knoll Park, NE Moncton, 28 April 2018 (Dearing)

Spring was mostly absent during the first two-thirds of April in Greater Moncton with daytime highs often barely above freezing and overnight lows which were much colder than normal.

Suddenly spring arrived during the last third of the month when temperatures jumped to 20 C and higher by day and above freezing by night.

While more rain fell during April compared to average, snowfall was scant which led to below normal precipitation overall.

The seasonal snow cover finally melted by mid-month but it had disappeared twice (late January and early March) since mid-December.

APRIL 2018 ALMANAC (at Greater Moncton Int’l Airport, 1981-2010)

Average HIGH  8.1 C

Average LOW  -1.8 C

AVERAGE  3.2 C (about 0.3 degrees BELOW normal)

Extreme HIGH  21.2 C (24 April)

Extreme LOW  -9.6 C (16 April)

RAINFALL  73.4 mm (slightly ABOVE normal)

SNOWFALL  8.4 cm (about 75 percent BELOW normal)

(Data courtesy Environment Canada)

Winter 2017/18 – Riding a Rollercoaster!

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A view of downtown Moncton from city hall, 23 Jan 2018 (City of Moncton)

Meteorological winter 2017/18 is now in the books since the three month period of December, January and February is over but we all know winter is not over yet in Southeast New Brunswick.

What a ride it has been in Greater Moncton with temperatures fluctuating wildly from very mild to extremely cold in just hours and in one case in mere minutes.

Snowfall was lighter compared to normal especially in February but the bigger concern were frequent periods of mixed, icy precipitation such as freezing rain and ice pellets.

WINTER ALMANAC 2017/18 at the Greater Moncton International Airport

Average HIGH  -1.2 C (about 0.9 degrees ABOVE normal)

Average LOW  -11.0 C (about 1 degree ABOVE normal)

AVERAGE  -6.1 C (about 1 degree ABOVE normal)

Extreme HIGH  16.7 C (13 January – highest temperature ever recorded in January)

Extreme LOW  -22.3 C (07 February)

RAINFALL  134.4 mm (about 20 percent ABOVE normal)

SNOWFALL  177.8 cm (about 15 percent BELOW normal)

(Data courtesy Environment Canada)

 

TWN unveils spring forecast

TWN spring

The Weather Network has taken a look ahead at the months of March, April and May for Atlantic Canada…

While it has been a relatively mild winter across the region, winter will still have several parting shots, including the threat for a few Nor’easters.

For some places, the biggest snowfall of the year could still be on the horizon (keep in mind the context – some areas have not had a classic winter storm).

Back and forth temperature swings should come close to offsetting, but with more potential for warmth to outweigh the periods of colder weather.

An active storm track will tap into subtropical moisture at times and bring above normal precipitation to most of the region through the spring season.

Canada’s Top 10 Weather Stories 2017

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Icy road on the Acadian Peninsula, 27 Jan 2017 (Twitter)

Canada had the eighth warmest period in 70 years of reporting weather in 2017, with temperatures averaging 1.4°C above normal.

From a list of 100 significant weather events across the country, Environment Canada picked the top 10 weather stories of the year:

1. Long and destructive summer wildfire season in British Columbia

2. Hot and dry summer in the West from Interior BC to Manitoba

3. Spring flooding in Quebec and Ontario

4. Cold and snowy winter in BC including Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island

5. More heavy rain and flooding in Southwestern Ontario during late August

6. Cool and wet summer in Central Canada

7. Heavy snow cripples Ontario and Quebec in mid-March

8. Record heat across Eastern Canada during September

9. Blizzards hit Newfoundland in March and April

10. Lengthy ice storm impacts New Brunswick in late January

Meteorological winter begins

EC winter

Most Canadians know winter, astronomically speaking, begins around 21 December but we know the season actually gets underway weeks before then.

Meteorologists like to package winter into neat three month blocks which is why 01 December marks the start of meteorological winter and 28 February marks the end.

In its three month outlook, Environment Canada expects most of New Brunswick will have above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.

A large swath of the Arctic will likely be warmer than usual while Ontario and the southern Prairies will have higher amounts of rain and snow compared to normal.

November 2017 – Seesaw temperatures

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Wildflowers and annuals in northeast Moncton, 03 Nov 2017 (Dearing)

As dark and dreary as November seems in Southeast New Brunswick, temperatures can often be volatile and this month was no exception.

Greater Moncton had at least five dramatic temperature swings starting on 10-11 November with a high of 10 C falling to -7 C with strong winds gusting up 69 km/h and the first snow flurries of the season.

The monthly mean of 1.9 C was exactly normal with highs near 20 C on two days early in the month while two days remained below freezing.

Overall precipitation was near normal for the first time since May although snowfall at 3.2 cm was well below normal.

NOVEMBER 2017 ALMANAC (at Greater Moncton Int’l Airport, 1981-2010)

Average HIGH  7.2 C

Average LOW  -3.3 C

AVERAGE  1.9 C (Normal)

Extreme HIGH  19.8 C (06 Nov)

Extreme LOW  -10.6 C (28 Nov)

RAINFALL  101.8 mm (NEAR normal)

SNOWFALL  3.2 cm (about 80 percent BELOW normal)

(Data courtesy Environment Canada)

Fall foliage past peak

Maple tree past peak in Moncton, 22 Oct 2017 (Dearing)

The fall foliage in Southeast New Brunswick is now past peak and the leaves are starting to tumble to the ground.

Typically a strong wind and/or rain event will bring down most remaining leaves from the trees with maples the first to shed and oaks among the last.

Forestry experts say unseasonably warm weather across the Maritimes this autumn have muted some fall colours.

Rich, vivid displays are most common when days are sunny but cool and nights are cold.