The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting hurricane activity in the North Atlantic Ocean in 2017 is likely to be above normal (45 percent) or near-normal (35 percent).
The Canadian Hurricane Centre says it responds to 4 or 5 tropical cyclone events each year on average, with 1 or 2 of those affecting Canadian land and another 2 or 3 threatening offshore waters.
Hurricanes are typically a greater concern in Canadian waters later in the season but the Canadian Hurricane Centre monitors the Atlantic Ocean year‑round for any tropical or tropical‑like cyclone that could pose a threat to Canada or its waters.
Sunset at Parlee Beach, NB, 05 Sept 2016 (Dearing)
The warmth of summer is expected to continue well into September in Southeast New Brunswick according to Environment Canada.
Meteorologists say the waters surrounding the Maritimes (Bay of Fundy, Atlantic Ocean, Northumberland Strait and Gulf of St.Lawrence) are about 2-3 Celsius above normal for this time of year.
Warm water generates energy which will help elevate temperatures throughout the region.
Precipitation is difficult to predict at this time of year since remnants of a post-tropical storm could easily deliver a hefty rainfall in just a few hours.
Post-Tropical Storm Colin, 08 June 2015 (CTV/Twitter)
By the time Colin had arrived in Canadian waters earlier today, it had become a post-tropical storm – essentially a strong low pressure system.
Much of Florida had received heavy rain from Colin before the storm moved into the Atlantic Ocean and tracked northeastward.
Wind was not a factor for the Maritimes but heavy rain fell in eastern Nova Scotia, Cape Breton Island and Newfoundland.
Greater Moncton received less than 20 mm of rain between remnants of Colin and another low pressure system which was crossing New Brunswick.
Colin was the third named storm of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season – after Bonnie in late May and Alex in mid-January.
Flooding in downtown Charleston, South Carolina, USA, 04 Oct 2015 (AFP/Getty Images)
Apart from cloud cover over Nova Scotia and New Brunswick tonight, Hurricane Joaquin will have no impact on Atlantic Canada as it churns northeastward across the ocean.
Joaquin brushed past Bermuda yesterday as a Category 2 storm with winds up to 160 km/h after roaring across the Bahamas as a major Category 4 hurricane where a U.S. cargo ship disappeared with more than 30 crew aboard.
U.S. forecasters say the moisture-laden storm was also partially responsible for record rainfall of more than 300 mm in parts of South Carolina – several months’ worth of rain in only 24 hours.
Although models showed the remnants of Joaquin would make it to the United Kingdom, it looks like the storm will weaken but bring rain and strong winds to Portugal later this week.
Although it still feels like summer in New Brunswick, meteorological autumn has arrived and The Weather Network has released its seasonal forecast.
The El Nino weather phenomenon in the Pacific is expected to lessen the impact of tropical storms in the Atlantic this fall.
Forecasters say temperatures will remain warm throughout September, normal in October but a pattern change is in store for early November.
However, a brief winter-like chill will be short-lived and more seasonal weather is in store for the remainder of this year.
A realty firm sponsored hot air balloon floats over NE Moncton, 10 August 2015 (Dearing)
A beautiful day in Southeast New Brunswick with just a few passing clouds was perfect for the flight of a hot air balloon over Greater Moncton.
An intense low pressure system in the Atlantic Ocean brought a lot of rain to Nova Scotia’s Eastern Shore and Cape Breton Island yesterday with more than 100 mm recorded in some areas.
While there was a lot of cloud over New Brunswick, only a trace of rain was recorded in Moncton.
Environment Canada reports less than 2 mm of rain has fallen so far this August but July started off the same way and became very wet by mid-month.
Hurricane Cristobal continues to churn in the Atlantic tonight, about 450 km east-southeast of Cape Hatteras and racing northeastward toward the Grand Banks.
The Canadian Hurricane Centre says Cristobal will likely merge with a cold front moving southward over Atlantic Canada.
Forecasters say the result will be periods of heavy rain, gusty winds and fall-like temperatures for the Maritimes and Newfoundland by Friday.
The 40-day period commonly known as the “Dog Days of Summer” officially comes to an end today for 2014.
While much of the stretch has been sunny, warm and sometimes wet – the last few days have been very different.
An unsettled pattern with sun, clouds, rain and repeat – often in a span of a few minutes – has been causing some New Brunswickers to utter the term fall-like given that daytime highs have been struggling to reach the low 20’s Celsius.
But the long range forecast is suggesting much warmer, calmer weather will return by next week as the semi-permanent Bermuda High moves closer to the U.S. Eastern Seaboard after a period much further east in the Atlantic Ocean.
Although there is still plenty of summer left, Accuweather is already looking ahead to fall.
Much of Atlantic Canada can expect unseasonably warm and dry weather as a persistent area of high pressure prevails across the region.
Sea surface temperatures of the northwest Atlantic Ocean are expected remain well above normal which will also be a factor in the warming trend.
However, at least one tropical cyclone could still directly impact the Atlantic coast from September into early October as the hurricane season becomes more active.
Courtesy Canadian Hurricane Centre, 15 October 2012
Forecasters say Hurricane Rafael has formed in the Atlantic Ocean south of Bermuda.
The U.S. Hurricane Center said Monday night that Rafael’s top sustained winds had risen to near 120 kph, making it the ninth hurricane of the Atlantic season.
The Canadian Hurricane Centre says the storm will likely have an impact on eastern Newfoundland by late Wednesday with heavy rain but the wind threat is descreasing since the current track is putting Rafael far offshore.