After what seemed like a short summer – it didn’t get started until early July in Southeast New Brunswick – The Weather Network has unveiled its 2019 fall forecast.
- Much of Atlantic Canada should see above-average rainfall due to a few systems that tap into tropical moisture and bring excessive totals.
- Above normal temperatures are expected to dominate across the southern Maritimes, while typical fall temperatures are expected elsewhere.
Snow settles in NE Moncton before a changeover to rain, 28 Oct 2018 (Dearing)
A frosty Saturday morning proved record breaking at the Greater Moncton International Airport when the thermometer plunged to -6.6°C which breaks the previous cold low from 1998 by 0.1°C.
Frigid temperatures were also set in Edmundston at -12.2°C, Woodstock at -11.7°C and Saint John at -8.4°C with weather records going back to 1886.
The Arctic cold was soon replaced by a low pressure system with some tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Willa.
The early season Nor’easter brought snow, ice pellets and eventually rain to the Maritimes along with gusty winds which uprooted trees in parts of New England.
Fall foliage in Centennial Park, Moncton, 13 Oct 2018 ( Dearing)
Starting late Wednesday and lasting into Friday, a warm front and low pressure system eventually combined with moisture streaming northward from Tropical Storm Michael.
As these two systems began to interact, a significant amount of rain fell over parts of the Maritimes.
Rainfall summary in millimetres as of Saturday 5am ADT:
- Doaktown: 47.2
- Greater Moncton Airport: 39.4
- Fredericton: 36.2
- Saint John: 35.6
- Grand Manan: 34.5
- Halifax Stanfield Airport: 55.4
- Yarmouth: 70.4
(Data courtesy Environment Canada)
The Weather Network has taken a look ahead at the months of March, April and May for Atlantic Canada…
While it has been a relatively mild winter across the region, winter will still have several parting shots, including the threat for a few Nor’easters.
For some places, the biggest snowfall of the year could still be on the horizon (keep in mind the context – some areas have not had a classic winter storm).
Back and forth temperature swings should come close to offsetting, but with more potential for warmth to outweigh the periods of colder weather.
An active storm track will tap into subtropical moisture at times and bring above normal precipitation to most of the region through the spring season.
Heavy snow falling in northeast Moncton, 09 Dec 2017 (Dearing)
A classic snowstorm brought heavy, moisture-laden snow to much of New Brunswick this weekend.
Environment Canada says the heaviest amounts fell in northeast areas of the province with 27 cm at Bathurst and 24 cm at Miscou Island.
Greater Moncton received 15 cm which was exactly what was being forecasted for Southeast New Brunswick.
The same system brought rain and warm temperatures to eastern mainland Nova Scotia, Cape Breton and the island of Newfoundland with a high of 18 C in St. John’s.
The parade of hurricanes in the Atlantic continues with Maria making landfall late tonight over the eastern Caribbean island nation of Dominica as a powerful category 5 storm packing sustained winds of 260 km/h.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center is outlying a path for Maria which is eerily similar to the recent Hurricane Irma with the U.S and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico expected to be impacted on Wednesday.
Maria will be accompanied by a dangerous storm surge and between 300-500 mm (12-20 inches) of rain to some of the islands causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Meantime, Hurricane Jose is still churning northward as a category 1 storm with heavy surf and rip currents along the U.S East Coast from North Carolina to Massachusetts.
Canadian forecasters say the remnants of Jose have already brought high humidity to the Maritimes and will give Nova Scotia persistent moisture and cloud cover as well as rough surf along the Atlantic coast.
The Weather Network has released its summer 2017 forecast covering June, July and August.
A changeable summer is expected across Atlantic Canada with extended periods of above seasonal and below seasonal weather.
The southern Maritimes which includes Greater Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick and possibly into southern Newfoundland have the best chance of seeing temperatures tip to the warm side of normal.
Meanwhile, cooler than normal temperatures are expected to be more persistent across eastern Labrador and northern Newfoundland.
Near normal rainfall is expected this summer except for western and northern New Brunswick.
There is the potential for a couple of systems to tap into subtropical or tropical moisture and bring above normal rainfall to parts of the region.