Teddy proves to be tepid

Teddy nearing Nova Scotia, 23 Sept 2020, 8am ADT (earth.nullschool.net)

Nova Scotians breathed a sigh of relief today as Post-Tropical Storm Teddy packed a bigger bark than a bite.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre says the expansive storm made landfall near Ecum Secum, along the eastern shore of Nova Scotia, around 8 a.m. ADT with heavy rain and winds up to 105 km/h.

Large destructive waves were hazardous along the Atlantic coast and authorities urged storm watchers to stay home for their own safety.

Teddy quickly moved over Nova Scotia into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on its way to western Newfoundland.

A rainfall warning was issued for Southeast New Brunswick with Greater Moncton getting about 30 mm of rain and a peak wind gust of 80 km/h.

Hot, dry summer continues

Dark brown shows severe drought, 31 July 2020 (Agriculture Canada)

Environment Canada calls summer 2020 ‘very unusual’ in New Brunswick given the extended periods of hot, humid weather.

As of today, Greater Moncton has recorded 25 days at or above 30°C this year – extraordinary given the average is 4.6 days.

If you want to cool off, head to the much cooler Fundy coast where only one day has climbed above 30°C in Saint John.

Unfortunately for farmers and gardeners, the heat comes during an extremely dry period with below normal precipitation in every month since last December.

As of 31 July, Agriculture Canada noted how Southeast and Northwest New Brunswick along with most of Prince Edward Island are now in a severe drought.

Heat & high humidity trigger severe weather

Severe weather north of Moncton, 29 July 2020 (Dearing)

Yet another three-day heat warning has been lifted in Southeast New Brunswick but the high humidity has stuck around.

Severe thunderstorm watches have been issued periodically over the last few days as storm cells move across the province.

Greater Moncton has been missing most of the activity which has tended to either track to the north or south of us.

Environment Canada warns severe storms can produce heavy rain, damaging wind gusts and large hail.

June 2020 – Suddenly it’s hot!

Irishtown Nature Park, Moncton, 16 June 2020 (Dearing)

The first half of June was cold and dry similar to May and April.

But by mid-month, after struggling to reach the 20s, temperatures suddenly began climbing into the 30s.

On 19 June, Greater Moncton hit a sizzling 35.6°C (humidex 40) which is the hottest June temperature in recorded history.

The thermometer climbed above 30°C six times and the average is only once.

Before the heat arrived, a light frost occurred on 10 June which damaged some sensitive crops like strawberries.

Farmers and gardeners also lamented a lack of rain with only one-third of the normal monthly amount recorded.

JUNE 2020 ALMANAC (at Greater Moncton Int’l Airport, 1981-2010)

Average HIGH 23.8°C

Average LOW 10.0°C

AVERAGE 16.9°C (about 1.7 degrees ABOVE normal)

Extreme HIGH 35.6°C (19 June, new monthly record)

Extreme LOW -0.6°C (10 June)

RAINFALL 34.3 mm (about 65 percent BELOW normal)

(Data courtesy Environment Canada)

How dry is it?

Drought

Yellow/brown areas show dry to moderate drought conditions, 01 June 2020 (Agriculture Canada)

Most of New Brunswick is extremely dry and has been for months which is a big concern for agriculture.

Environment Canada data shows winter snowfall was about 20 percent below normal in Greater Moncton and precipitation has been below average every month since March.

June rainfall was only one-third of normal and the last major amount – 21.3 mm – fell on 12 June which was just prior to a prolonged heat wave.

Prior to that, 09 May is the previous date with appreciable precipitation – 14.1 mm – which also included some snow!

Farmers in Southeast New Brunswick – already coping with a pandemic – say the drought has put many crops including potatoes in danger and without irrigation total losses can be expected.

In addition, a strawberry farmer notes how a light frost earlier this month (10 June) caused some damage with many berries in bloom at the time.

Severe weather strikes Fredericton

Tree down near Charlotte and Carleton, Fredericton, NB, 05 June 2020 (Twitter/@KarlieFooter)

Strong clusters of thunderstorms rolled across central New Brunswick Friday night bringing heavy downpours, hail and damaging winds to the Fredericton area.

Environment Canada estimates winds gusted to more than 90 km/h which uprooted trees and downed power lines causing widespread outages.

Flash flooding became an issue when about 20-30 mm of rain fell in a brief period.

A severe thunderstorm watch was in place for Southeast New Brunswick for almost an hour with only dark clouds and sprinkles of rain.

May 2020 – Cool and dry

Irishtown Nature Park reservoir, 05 May 2020 (Dearing)

For the last few years, May in Southeast New Brunswick has been colder than normal and this year was no exception.

A new record high was set during a mini heat wave at month’s end which was enough to boost temperatures to just slightly below average.

Snow fell as late as the 12th and rain was scant which led to a dry month overall.

Frost was recorded on the 24th which is close to the last average date in Greater Moncton – if it is the last frost of spring.

MAY 2020 ALMANAC (at Greater Moncton Int’l Airport, 1981-2010)

Average HIGH 16.6°C

Average LOW 3.0°C

AVERAGE 9.8°C (slightly BELOW normal)

Extreme HIGH 31.5°C (28 May)

Extreme LOW -1.3°C (23 May)

RAINFALL 40.4 mm (about 60 percent BELOW normal)

SNOWFALL 4.5 cm (slightly ABOVE normal)

(Data courtesy Environment Canada)

Active Atlantic hurricane season predicted

Hurricane

U.S. forecasters have unveiled their projections for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season and it promises to be a busy one with 13 to 19 named storms and 6 to 10 becoming hurricanes.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) believes several factors are at play this year including above average sea surface temperatures, weaker tropical trade winds and an expected La Nina climate pattern.

Although the season doesn’t officially begin until 01 June, there has already been one named storm – Arthur – which had peak wind gusts of 95 km/h and neared the Southeastern U.S. before moving out to sea without striking land.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre will also be keeping an eye on storms which enter northern waters.

Last September, Hurricane Dorian made landfall near Halifax and caused destruction across Nova Scotia, Southeast New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island.

Green up underway

Green up in west end Moncton, 04 May 2020 (Dearing)

Over the past few days, the landscape across Southeast New Brunswick has been greening up and the buds are bursting on the trees.

Recent warm weather and some precipitation – including wet snow today – have finally made it look more like spring.

However, the long range forecast doesn’t have much heat with below average temperatures likely in the next 10 days.

Warmest day since December

Ice melting at Irishtown Nature Park Reservoir, 05 April 2019 (Dearing)

Greater Moncton climbed to a daytime high of 13.4°C on 14 April which was the warmest in four months – since 15 December.

During the last few years, the thermometer has typically been surging into the teens Celsius by mid-April.

Environment Canada data shows the next heat milestone in Southeast New Brunswick, 20°C, is typically reached between now and early May although that kind of warmth is not in the current long range forecast.

In 2019, the milestone was reached on 05 May when it hit 19.7°C.