As slow-moving Hurricane Dorian continues churning parallel to the coastline of the Southeastern United States, the Canadian Hurricane Centre is getting a better sense of how the storm will impact Atlantic Canada this weekend.
Forecasters believe Dorian could be a Category 1 storm when it arrives on Saturday and follow a path to the east of mainland Nova Scotia.
Rainfall will be heavy to the west of the track which includes Southern New Brunswick with about 50 mm possible and perhaps as much as 100 mm for parts of Nova Scotia.
Hurricane-force winds with large waves and pounding surf are possible along the Atlantic coast near the track before the storm heads to Newfoundland on Sunday.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center says Dorian is now moving toward the coast of the Carolinas with strong winds, storm surges and up to 300 mm of rain.
The Weather Network believes the harsh winter conditions this November in New Brunswick are just a preview of the upcoming season.
Temperatures will likely be below normal this season but periods of mild weather can still be expected.
An active storm track along the Atlantic coast will mean many systems delivering above average precipitation including snow, rain and freezing rain.
A developing El Nino should bring a warmer, drier winter for Western Canada and a colder, wetter winter from the Great Lakes to Atlantic Canada.
Atlantic Canada could feel an impact from Tropical Storm Chris which has formed off the coast of the Southeastern U.S.
The Canadian Hurricane Centre says the third named storm of 2018 will move northeastward and possibly strengthen to become a hurricane by early Wednesday.
The storm could weaken as it approaches Nova Scotia by Thursday.
The CHC notes there is still uncertainty in the forecast track and intensity of this system.
Beryl is the second named storm but first hurricane of the season and has been down downgraded to a tropical storm as it heads toward Puerto Rico.
Meantime, Environment Canada issued another heat warning for New Brunswick except the Fundy coast, Prince Edward Island and northern Nova Scotia as a warm, humid air mass pushes highs into the low 30s C with humidex values up to 38 on Monday.
The Weather Network has taken a look ahead at the months of March, April and May for Atlantic Canada…
While it has been a relatively mild winter across the region, winter will still have several parting shots, including the threat for a few Nor’easters.
For some places, the biggest snowfall of the year could still be on the horizon (keep in mind the context – some areas have not had a classic winter storm).
Back and forth temperature swings should come close to offsetting, but with more potential for warmth to outweigh the periods of colder weather.
An active storm track will tap into subtropical moisture at times and bring above normal precipitation to most of the region through the spring season.
As snow flurries began falling in Greater Moncton today, the Weather Network unveiled its winter forecast covering the months of December, January and February.
TWN says although typical see-saws are expected, temperatures should be near normal for Southeast New Brunswick with daytime highs averaging just below freezing at about -2 C.
Precipitation will likely be above normal for the region but TWN meteorologists say the storm track will vary which means not all of it will fall as snow like what happened two years ago.
Overall across Canada, TWN says we should expect a classic Canadian winter in 2016-17.