From left to right, Hurricanes Katia, Irma, Jose, 08 Sept 2017 (Earth Wind Map)
The Canadian Hurricane Centre is forecasting 10 to 16 named storms with five to nine becoming hurricanes this year.
One to four hurricanes is likely to be major with sustained winds of at least 178 km/h.
But 2018 is not expected to be as busy as 2017 which had 17 named storms with 10 hurricanes including a trio of destructive cyclones – Harvey, Irma and Maria.
Three storms made it into Canada’s response zone but none made landfall.
Although the season doesn’t officially start until June 1st, a subtropical storm named Alberto has already formed off the Yucatan Peninsula and will churn north across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend toward the U.S Gulf Coast.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting hurricane activity in the North Atlantic Ocean in 2017 is likely to be above normal (45 percent) or near-normal (35 percent).
The Canadian Hurricane Centre says it responds to 4 or 5 tropical cyclone events each year on average, with 1 or 2 of those affecting Canadian land and another 2 or 3 threatening offshore waters.
Hurricanes are typically a greater concern in Canadian waters later in the season but the Canadian Hurricane Centre monitors the Atlantic Ocean year‑round for any tropical or tropical‑like cyclone that could pose a threat to Canada or its waters.
Autumn colours at Fairview Knoll Park in Moncton, 10 Oct 2013 (Dearing)
It is sometimes hard to let summer go but having a mild start to autumn helps ease the transition and that is what happened in Greater Moncton during October 2013.
Daytime highs and overnight lows were mostly above normal for the first two-thirds of the month but a drastic change in the last one-third of October led to mainly single digit highs and lows below freezing.
Due to the absence of post-tropical cyclones, rainfall was well below normal and not a single snowflake was recorded.
OCTOBER 2013 Almanac (at the Greater Moncton International Airport)
Average HIGH 14.0°C
Average LOW 2.1°C
AVERAGE 8.1°C (about 0.5 degrees above normal for 30-year average 1981-2010)
Extreme HIGH 23.7°C (02 Oct)
Extreme LOW -6.8°C (30 Oct)
Rainfall 42.4 mm (about 60% below normal)
(Statistics courtesy Environment Canada)
Although there is still plenty of summer left, Accuweather is already looking ahead to fall.
Much of Atlantic Canada can expect unseasonably warm and dry weather as a persistent area of high pressure prevails across the region.
Sea surface temperatures of the northwest Atlantic Ocean are expected remain well above normal which will also be a factor in the warming trend.
However, at least one tropical cyclone could still directly impact the Atlantic coast from September into early October as the hurricane season becomes more active.
Trees uprooted in St. John’s, NL, 11 Sept 2012 (CP photo)
Forecasters at the Canadian Hurricane Centre say an active hurricane season is expected this year with an above-average number of storms.
One or two storms typically make landfall in Eastern Canada every year with another two or three entering offshore waters.
Although the season officially begins in June, hurricane activity mainly occurs between mid-August and mid-October.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms, of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes.
In 2012, the Canadian Hurricane Centre monitored five tropical cyclones and issued bulletins on four storms – two which made landfall and two which stayed offshore.
On 11 September, former Hurricane Leslie struck Eastern Newfoundland causing minor damage and on 29-30 October, the far-reaching influence of Post-Tropical Storm Sandy was felt from Ontario to Atlantic Canada.
In the United States, Hurricane Isaac was the only storm to reach landfall as a hurricane in Louisiana and while Hurricane Sandy caused considerable damage in New Jersey and took 147 lives, it lost its status before striking land.